Opinion: Fox's Lee Hartley Carter Says Five Words Explain the Midterms: Affordability, Socialism, Corruption, Trump, Turnout
The pollster and strategist says voters may be voting against something rather than for someone, and that both parties are likely to misread Tuesday's result as an endorsement. Her case is built on polling and ad-spending figures we have not checked.
This is a summary of an opinion column in Fox News by Lee Hartley Carter, a communications strategist and public opinion expert who runs Carter Intelligence Group. The views are hers, not RightNewsRightNow's.
The argument. After more than $11 billion in political advertising, Carter says, the election comes down to five words: affordability, socialism, corruption, Trump and turnout. Her thesis is that "Americans may be less interested in voting for somebody than in voting against something."
Affordability. She says voters feel the economy as "a series of small humiliations," not statistics, so Democrats have the easier argument. But persuading voters that Republicans have not helped them, she writes, is not the same as persuading them Democrats will.
Socialism. In polling she has examined, the share of Republicans motivated to vote against socialism rose from 50 percent to 59 percent in a month. Republicans may be unhappy with their party and still turn out, she says, because "disappointment makes people complain. Fear makes them act."
Corruption. She cites Brennan Center and Wesleyan Media Project research that nearly a third of congressional TV ads this cycle mention ethics or campaign finance, and points to the reported plan in Alaska to put a second "Dan Sullivan" on the ballot. Democrat Mary Peltola has denied knowing about it. Carter says political hardball "doesn't have a party registration."
Trump. Democrats have spent more than $163 million on ads mentioning Trump since Sept. 1, against roughly $11 million from Republicans, she writes. She says many of his supporters are "Trump supporters who happen to vote Republican" and may turn out to protect him from a Democratic Congress.
Turnout. Polls show a Democratic advantage, she says, but they measure likely voters. Gallup found 56 percent of Americans have given considerable thought to this election, a midterm record. Her closing prediction is that whichever side wins will treat it as an endorsement, and "voters can fire one party without falling in love with the other."
Our note: We have not checked her polling, the Gallup figure or the ad-spending numbers, and the column does not say where its own 50 to 59 percent figure comes from beyond "polling I've been examining." Our earlier coverage of Carter's work and of the final Times/Siena polls is on the site.