Opinion: Heritage Economist E.J. Antoni Says the Iran War's Energy Shock Has Put Affordability on Hold, but Only Temporarily
He argues paychecks gained ground from January 2025 until the war began, that today's price spike is an energy shock rather than runaway money printing, and that peace would bring prices and mortgage rates down. His figures are his own.
This is a summary of an opinion column in Fox News by E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation and a senior fellow at Unleash Prosperity. The views are his, not RightNewsRightNow's.
The argument. Antoni says Americans are right that affordability has been a problem since at least 2022, that it improved markedly until February, and that overseas conflict reversed some of the progress. Once the wars with Iran and in Ukraine end, he writes, "affordability will start to improve again."
The Biden years. He says the average weekly paycheck grew roughly 17% under President Biden but bought about 4% less, and that rates rose fastest in four decades, together roughly doubling the monthly payment on a median-priced home in four years.
The recovery and the shock. By his numbers, real weekly paychecks rose about 2% from January 2025 through February, reversing half the Biden-era losses. Then the Iran war disrupted energy markets. He says oil jumped from $60 to $70 a barrel to $100 to $120, pushing up food, airfares, plastics and manufactured goods, and that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure worsened diesel shortages. Homeownership affordability hit a three-year high in February and has since fallen to its lowest level since July 2024, he says.
The claim at the center. Unlike the 2022 inflation peak above 9%, Antoni argues, today's rise comes from an energy shock rather than government overspending and money creation. "The difference in causation means there's a different solution and a better outlook too." He points to booming investment, the fastest manufacturing expansion in at least four years, private-sector job growth and AI-driven productivity, and says falling energy prices would lower inflation expectations and mortgage rates.
What we have not checked. The paycheck, oil-price, mortgage and affordability figures are Antoni's. Critics may dispute his reading of the cause. Our earlier coverage includes the October ISM factory report.