Seven Senate Seats, Five Governorships, Both Chambers: How Republicans Lost Ground and Where It Hurt Most
The Associated Press count shows Democrats flipping seven Senate seats and five governorships, including in Texas, Kansas and South Carolina. The AP Voter Poll points to Trump's approval, prices, young voters and weak nominees. Our read of where the party bled.
Republicans did not lose one thing on Tuesday. They lost several at once, and the Associated Press count shows where.
The map. The AP has called seven Republican-held Senate seats for Democrats: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio (special), South Carolina and Texas. It has called five governorships the same way: Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas. In the House, at least 21 Republican-held seats are called for Democrats in the AP's race feed, with dozens more uncalled. All of this is unofficial until the states certify.
The reach. The AP's own takeaways note that Democrats won in swing states like Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina, and in Republican strongholds like Iowa, Kansas, Texas and South Carolina. Our arithmetic from the AP counts: Democrat Josh Turek won Iowa's Senate seat by 4.1 points, Annie Andrews took South Carolina by 4.5, and James Talarico won Texas by 12.3.
What the AP Voter Poll found. About three-quarters of voters said they feel angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Roughly six in ten disapprove of the president's job performance. About six in ten said higher-than-usual prices are more because of Trump's policies. Voters who had Trump in mind when they voted were about two to one on the side of opposing him. The AP also found roughly 70% of voters want more checks on the presidency.
The coalition. The AP says voters under 30, who split about evenly in 2024, went about seven in ten for the Democratic House candidate. It reports only about one in ten Black men backed the Republican House candidate, down from about a quarter who backed Trump in 2024, and about a third of Hispanic voters backed the Republican, down from about four in ten. Those are survey estimates, not vote counts.
The candidates. This is the part the party can fix. The AP Voter Poll found about two-thirds of Texas voters said Ken Paxton lacked the right personal character for the Senate. About two-thirds of South Carolina voters said Darline Graham lacked the experience. About half of Georgia Senate voters called Mike Collins "too extreme." A slim majority of Kansas voters said Sen. Roger Marshall lacked the right character. The AP says Trump backed both.
The caution. The same poll found about six in ten voters view the Republican Party unfavorably and about half view Democrats unfavorably. This was a rejection of one side more than a love letter to the other.
Our read. Republicans lost on prices, on the president's standing, and on nominees who could not carry a general election. Only the last is entirely in the party's hands. The AP also says the GOP's redistricting push appeared to backfire, with Democrats winning three Florida districts Republicans had redrawn this spring and several heavily Latino Texas border districts.
What we could not check. We rely on the AP's poll and counts and have not seen the poll's methodology. Counts are unofficial. House pickups are from the AP race feed and may differ from the AP's final tally.