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Still Counting: Two Senate Seats, Two Governorships and Dozens of House Races Remain Open

The AP has not called Senate races in Mississippi and Alaska, governor races in Kansas and Alaska, or dozens of House seats. Where each stands, why it is slow, and what could still change control of the margins.

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The big calls are in, but not all of the races. As of about 8 a.m. Central Wednesday, per the Associated Press, these are still open. All counts are unofficial.

SENATE (control is already decided; these change the margin)

Mississippi. Democrat Scott Colom has 462,821 votes and Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Republican, has 462,778. That is a 43-vote gap with about 95.6% counted. It is the closest statewide race on the board. A gap that small can trigger a recount, but we have not confirmed Mississippi's rules or any request.

Alaska. Democrat Mary Peltola has 102,701 (48.2%) and Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Republican, has 102,075 (47.9%), a 626-vote gap with about 74% counted. The lead changed hands overnight. The AP has said Alaska counts slowly and that most mail ballots were not expected before Nov. 18. Ranked-choice voting applies if no candidate gets a majority of first-choice votes.

GOVERNOR

Kansas. Democrat Cindy Holscher has 50.3% and Republican Ty Masterson 49.7%, a 5,557-vote gap with about 98% counted. The AP has not called it.

Alaska. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has 49.2%, Republican Bernadette Wilson 29.2%, Republican Dave Bronson 14.2%, Republican Treg Taylor 7.5%. About 74% counted. Ranked-choice voting applies if no one reaches a majority.

HOUSE

The AP's headline shows 68 seats uncalled. Some are Republican-held seats where Democrats lead, and some are Democratic-held. In the AP race feed we reviewed, Democrats lead 39 of the uncalled races and Republicans lead 34, which includes same-party contests in California. These are the narrowest:

  • North Carolina 5: Chuck Hubbard (D) leads Rep. Virginia Foxx (R) by 99 votes.
  • North Carolina 3: Rep. Greg Murphy (R) leads by 233 votes.
  • Tennessee 4: Victoria Broderick (D) leads Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R) by 280 votes.
  • Minnesota 1: Jake Johnson (D) leads Rep. Brad Finstad (R) by 321 votes.
  • Maine 2: Matthew Dunlap (D) leads Paul LePage (R) by 707 votes, about 85% counted.
  • Florida 27: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R) leads by 1,116.
  • Colorado 3: Rep. Jeff Hurd (R) leads by 1,211, about 81% counted.
  • Florida 9: Rep. Darren Soto (D) leads by 1,477.
  • Arizona 2: Jonathan Nez (D) leads Rep. Eli Crane (R) by 1,953, about 78% counted.

Several have large lead margins but little counted: California 22 (Randy Villegas, D, leads Rep. David Valadao by 26,857 with about 57% counted) and Arizona 6 (JoAnna Mendoza, D, leads Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 23,767, about 80% counted).

What we are watching. Mail and provisional ballots in Arizona, California and Alaska. The 99% counted markers in North Carolina and Tennessee mean the leftover vote is small, so those leads are less likely to move far, but they are small enough that provisional ballots and canvass corrections could. Whether anything flips after certification is not something we can predict.

Our read. The House majority is already decided. What remains is how big. Every one of these races is the kind a campaign can lose by one precinct.

What we could not check. Percent counted is the AP's estimate. We have not seen official state canvasses or any recount filing. We will mark any race the AP calls after this was written.

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