2028 Starts Today: Shapiro and Moore Won Big, a Progressive Won Michigan, and the AP Calls Trump a Lame Duck
The AP says the 2028 race unofficially begins Wednesday. Democratic governors Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore cruised to re-election, progressives claim Michigan, and Republicans face a lame-duck president and a party the AP says could be shaken at its foundation.
The Associated Press says the 2028 presidential contest "unofficially begins Wednesday." Here is what the results say about who is positioned.
Democrats. The AP notes that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, both seen as 2028 prospects, won re-election. By our arithmetic from the AP counts, Shapiro won by 21.9 points over Stacy Garrity and Moore by 29.5 over Dan Cox. The AP calls it a good night for the party's moderate wing. It also says the progressive wing had a good night, because Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Senate seat over Mike Rogers by 7.0 points by our math, and "progressives [have] a legitimate argument that a far-left leader can win, even in a perennial battleground."
The Democratic problem. The same AP Voter Poll found about half of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably. The AP says the party "still needs work." That leaves a fight between the two wings, which Republicans can watch and use.
Republicans. The AP says the losses "could shake the very foundation of the Republican Party." Trump cannot run again. The AP calls him a lame duck. No Republican in our sources has said he or she is running for 2028, and we do not guess.
The new Democratic governors. Democrats now have governors-elect in Georgia (Keisha Lance Bottoms, the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history, per the AP), Ohio (Amy Acton), Iowa (Rob Sand), Nevada (Aaron Ford) and Texas (Gina Hinojosa, who the AP says will be the state's first Latina governor). Each is a new platform in a state that matters to the next presidential map.
Republican governors with something to say. Byron Donalds held Florida by 1.3 points. Kelly Ayotte held New Hampshire by 3.9. Those are close, and the party will study them.
Our read. Two years out, nothing here is a forecast. A midterm is a referendum on the party in power, and the AP's own words are that the result was a rebuke of Trump. A strong ticket and a different economy by 2028 could change the picture. The lesson that carries over is the one about candidates.
What we could not check. We did not find reporting in our sources on any 2028 announcement. Our margin figures are arithmetic from unofficial AP counts.