The rating
Toss-up
Rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report on Oct 20, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Toss-up | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Latest |
Who is running
Ken Paxton
Republican Open seat
James Talarico
Democrat Open seat
The facts
- Paxton beat Cornyn in the May 26 runoff. President Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19.
- Talarico beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary.
- A Cook poll, Oct. 9-13, 2026, of 934 likely Texas voters (margin of error 3.2 points) found Talarico ahead by 5 points.
- Cook moved Texas from Leans Republican to Toss Up.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
Texas is a large Republican state, and Cook and Sabato both call this seat a toss-up.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 20, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)