The rating
Lean Republican
Rated Lean Republican by Cook Political Report on Oct 13, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Lean R | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | Latest |
Who is running
Greg Abbott
Republican Incumbent
Gina Hinojosa
Democrat Challenger
The facts
- Abbott won in 2022 with 54.8%.
- A Cook Political Report poll, Oct. 9-13, 2026, of 934 likely Texas voters (margin of error 3.2 points; Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group), found Abbott ahead 48% to 46%.
- Decision Desk HQ gives Abbott a 70% chance of winning.
- Cook moved Texas from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on Oct. 1.
Worth knowing about this race
The Cook poll shows a close race. Abbott's lead is within the margin of error.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
Texas is the biggest Republican prize on the governor map. A loss would be a national story.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 13, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)