The rating
Lean Republican
Rated Lean Republican by Cook Political Report on Oct 23, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Lean R | Oct 23, 2026 |
Who is running
Brandon Herrera
Republican Open seat
Katy Padilla Stout
Democrat Open seat
Ben Mendoza
Independent Open seat
The facts
- Cook Political Report rates the race Leans Republican as of Oct. 23, 2026.
- Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned on April 14, 2026, after admitting to an affair.
- Wikipedia lists the district's Partisan Voting Index as R+7.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
Republicans must hold this seat without Tony Gonzales on the ballot. Cook rates it Leans Republican.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 23, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)