The rating
Lean Republican
Rated Lean Republican by Cook Political Report on Oct 23, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Lean R | Oct 23, 2026 |
Who is running
Mike Carey
Republican Incumbent
Don Leonard
Democrat Challenger
Brennan Barrington
Libertarian Challenger
The facts
- Cook Political Report rates the race Leans Republican as of Oct. 23, 2026.
- Mike Carey (R) was first elected in 2021.
- Wikipedia lists the district's Partisan Voting Index as R+5.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
Cook leans Republican, but Democrats are targeting this seat. Mike Carey must hold it.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 23, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)