The rating
Toss-up
Rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report on Oct 23, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Toss-up | Oct 23, 2026 |
Who is running
Mike Lawler
Republican Incumbent
Cait Conley
Democrat Challenger
The facts
- Cook Political Report rates the race Toss-up as of Oct. 23, 2026.
- Mike Lawler (R) was first elected in 2022.
- Wikipedia lists the district's Partisan Voting Index as D+1.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
A true toss-up. If Mike Lawler holds on, Republicans protect a seat Democrats badly want.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 23, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)