The rating
Toss-up
Rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report on Oct 20, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Toss-up | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Latest |
Who is running
Ashley Hinson
Republican Open seat
Josh Turek
Democrat Open seat
The facts
- Ernst won this seat in 2020 with 51.7%.
- Ernst announced on Sept. 2, 2025 she would not run again, after criticism over her comments on Medicaid.
- A Cook Political Report poll, Oct. 9-13, 2026, of 602 likely Iowa voters (margin of error 4 points; run by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group), found Turek ahead by 2 points.
- In that same Cook poll, Republicans led on immigration and taxes.
Worth knowing about this race
In the Cook poll, Republicans led on immigration and taxes.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
Holding an open Republican seat helps keep the Republican majority.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 20, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)