The rating
Lean Democrat
Rated Lean Democrat by Cook Political Report on Oct 13, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Lean D | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | Latest |
Who is running
Zach Lahn
Republican Open seat
Rob Sand
Democrat Open seat
The facts
- Reynolds, a Republican, chose not to run again.
- Lahn won the June 2 Republican nomination in what Wikipedia calls a major upset.
- Sand is the only Democrat holding a statewide office in Iowa.
- A Cook Political Report poll, Oct. 9-13, 2026, of 602 likely Iowa voters (margin of error 4 points; run by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group), found Sand ahead 54% to 43%.
Worth knowing about this race
Cook's poll found Sand ahead by 11 points, a wider gap than in the Senate race in the same state.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
Cook's poll shows the Republican behind. Turnout will decide it.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 13, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)