The rating
Lean Democrat
Rated Lean Democrat by Cook Political Report on Oct 13, 2026.
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report (opens in a new tab) | Lean D | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | Latest |
Who is running
Dave Bronson
Republican Open seat
Treg Taylor
Republican Open seat
Bernadette Wilson
Republican Open seat
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Democrat Open seat
The facts
- Dunleavy won in 2022 with 50.3% and is term-limited.
- The top four from the August 18 primary advanced: Republicans Treg Taylor, Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson, and Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Voters rank their choices.
- The state's Public Offices Commission questioned Taylor's financial disclosure. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom first declined to certify him, then reversed on Sept. 4 and certified him.
Worth knowing about this race
Three Republicans split the Republican vote. Ranked-choice voting lets voters list a second and third pick.
Opinion
Why this race matters to conservatives
Three Republicans on one ballot is the big risk. Rank your choices carefully.
This box is the opinion of RightNewsRightNow. The rest of this page is reporting, with sources listed below.
Where these facts come from
- Cook Political ReportCurrent rating, as of Oct 13, 2026Read it (opens in a new tab)
- Wikipedia (election pages, with their cited sources)Candidate and race factsRead it (opens in a new tab)