Report: Talarico's Own Polling Shows the Texas Senate Race Tighter Than Public Surveys, Breitbart Says, Citing the Times
People close to the Democrat's campaign told the New York Times their internal numbers match the closer public polls, and one local party chair put his odds at 'at most' 50 percent. Texans vote Tuesday.
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico's private polling shows his race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton much closer than some high-profile public polls suggest, Breitbart reports, summarizing a New York Times story published Saturday.
The gap. Breitbart says a New York Times/Siena poll in September and a CNN/SSRS poll taken Oct. 20 to 27 had Talarico ahead by 6 points. Other recent surveys show him tied with Paxton or up 2 points, inside the margin of error. People close to the campaign told the Times that Talarico's internal numbers match those tighter surveys. A Fox News poll in early October had him ahead 51 to 49, and a later Fox poll had the two tied at 49.
The worry. Those same people said the polls may not fully capture rural conservative voters who support Trump. Luke Warford, chairman of the Travis County Democratic Party, said, "I think James has at most a 50 percent chance of winning." Breitbart says Paxton's strongest support comes from rural voters, white evangelical Christians and Texans 65 and older. Democratic canvassers in San Antonio and El Paso also reported loyalty to Trump and a dislike of Talarico among some Latino men, per the Times.
The money. Breitbart says the race is the most expensive non-presidential contest on record, at more than $500 million in combined spending, and notes that Elon Musk routed $158 million to groups backing Paxton. It adds that Talarico has spent the closing stretch recasting earlier comments he now calls "cringey," including that God is "nonbinary."
What to keep in mind. Breitbart is relaying a Times report that relies on unnamed people and does not publish the internal numbers, so we cannot say how close the campaign's own polls actually are. Our earlier stories on the Fox News poll cover the tied race.