Opinion: Lee Carter Says Everyone Is Angry, but the Midterms Will Turn on Who Actually Shows Up
The pollster argues Democrats lead among voters who say they are motivated, but only by six points among those who voted in both 2022 and 2024, and that Republican registration gains matter.
Pollster Lee Hartley Carter argues in a Fox News opinion column that the final week is about turnout, not mood.
The argument. Polls favor Democrats, she writes, but "anger doesn't vote. People do." Pew finds Democrats lead by 24 points among voters who say they are extremely motivated. Among people who actually voted in both 2022 and 2024, she says, their edge is six. Fox's own poll has Democrats up 54% to 45% on the generic ballot, narrowing to six among those certain to vote. CBS projects 229 House seats for Democrats, but also finds Democrats have more voters who say they will definitely vote while Republicans have more who say they might.
The evidence she cites. In 2022, Pew found, Republican gains came mostly from turnout: 71% of Trump's 2020 voters turned out versus 67% of Biden's. Since 2018, party registration has moved toward Republicans by about eight points in North Carolina, seven in Pennsylvania, five in Nevada and four in Arizona. She cautions that registering is not voting.
Why Trump is on the road. Carter says the rallies may not change minds but could change who leaves the house. She notes Democrats have spent over $163 million on ads mentioning Trump since Sept. 1, against about $11 million for Republicans.
Her caution. More than 13 million early and mail ballots were in by Oct. 22, against about 9 million at this point in 2022, but she says that may only mean people are voting earlier. Her closing line: the question is "which party can get its Americans to vote."
This is opinion. The polling figures are as cited by the author; we have not checked them.