Opinion: Hugh Hewitt Says 2006 Is the Warning for Republicans, but the Economy, the Iran War and Candidate Quality Differ
The Fox News contributor compares this midterm to the 2006 loss under George W. Bush, argues several things are different this time, and tells Republicans to expect a bad night but not a repeat. The claims and figures are his.
This is a summary of an opinion column on Fox News by Hugh Hewitt, a Fox News contributor and Salem Radio Network host. The views and figures are his, not RightNewsRightNow's.
The warning. Hewitt writes that many Republicans are thinking of 2006, the last time a Republican president led his party into the midterms in his sixth year. Republicans lost a net six Senate seats and 30 House seats that year. He calls it the closest parallel to 2026 and "scary."
A reason to doubt the polls. He points to a Washington Post report that for a Kansas Senate poll, 32% of Democrats answered pollsters' calls and texts but only 12% of Republicans did. The Post said that gave "good reason to suspect the poll overestimates Democratic candidates' support." Hewitt says that should give every analyst pause.
What is worse than 2006, in his telling. Inflation was 2.1% then and is 3.7% now. Gas was $2.25 a gallon and is $4.20. The 30-year mortgage rate was about 6.36% and is 7.25%. He says these hurt Republican candidates, and that housing costs do too.
What is better. Third-quarter GDP in 2006 was reported at 1.6%, while this year's is 3.4%. He argues voters rationally blame the price of gas and inflation on President Trump's confrontation with Iran, which he calls a necessary fight. He says the biggest difference is war: in October 2006 more than 100 U.S. service members were killed in Iraq. He says the U.S. is "decisively winning" in Iran, though not yet decisively won, and that 23 service members have died since February. He credits the president with sealing the border, tax cuts on tips and overtime, higher defense spending, and falling crime.
Candidates and money. He says Democrats are running weaker Senate candidates than in 2006, naming Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Mary Peltola in Alaska. He calls Republicans Mike Rogers and Michele Tafoya "five-star candidates." He estimates about $4 billion will be spent this cycle, with a Republican advantage, versus $2.8 billion in 2006, and says Mr. Trump made 30 or more October appearances against 16 for Bush.
His bottom line. Republicans should prepare for another 2006 but "should not be surprised if the results are not that bad." He warns redistricting gains could be washed out by a big blue wave, then ends: "Trust the people."
What we could not check. We have not verified his figures on GDP, mortgage rates, gas prices, casualties or spending, and the column does not link its data. The characterization of candidates and of the Iran war's course are his own views.