Final Times/Siena Poll Has Democrats Ahead in Five Senate Races, but Late Deciders Break for Republicans by Nine Points
The last major poll before Tuesday shows Democratic leads in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio and Kansas, a two-point edge in Alaska and a tie in Iowa. Voters who made up their minds in the past month lean Republican.
The final New York Times/Siena College poll before Election Day gives Democrats the lead in most of the Senate races it tested, but it also shows a late tilt toward Republicans, the Washington Examiner reports.
The numbers. Among likely voters in seven key Senate races, the poll has Democratic candidates ahead in Michigan by 11 points, Texas by 7, Maine by 6, Ohio by 5 and Kansas by 5. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads by 2. Iowa is effectively tied. The survey ran from Oct. 23 through Nov. 1 and reached 5,708 voters. Its margin of error runs from 3.3 points in Texas to 4.8 in Alaska.
The late break. The Times reported that "voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin," and that some voters remain undecided. Every Democrat except Peltola improved against the Republican since the last Times/Siena poll. All seven Democrats are viewed more favorably by independents.
What the poll missed. The survey was "mostly completed" before the Times published its Alaska report alleging that Peltola's campaign helped recruit a candidate with the same name as Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola's campaign denies involvement. It was also taken before Rep. Haley Stevens, a Michigan Democrat who lost the primary to Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers on Sunday.
What to keep in mind. The poll shows Democrats ahead, and the Examiner's headline stresses the one measure that favors Republicans. The Times itself notes that blue-collar white workers are hard to reach in surveys and that polling error has been among the highest with that group. The late-decider finding covers only part of the sample. We have not seen the poll's full methodology.