Goldman Sachs Says Industries Using AI More Show Weaker Job Growth and Higher Unemployment, but the Link Is a Correlation, Not Proof of Cause
Chief economist Jan Hatzius says the effect is spreading beyond tech. Goldman also expects the growth boost from AI spending to peak in late 2026 or early 2027.
New Goldman Sachs research ties heavier use of artificial intelligence to softer hiring, the Daily Caller reports.
The finding. In a report titled "Global Views: Downside Growth Risks," chief economist Jan Hatzius found statistically significant links between AI adoption and worse labor-market conditions across U.S. nonmanufacturing industries. A ten-point rise in an industry's AI adoption went with roughly 0.9 percentage points weaker employment growth and a 0.9-point higher unemployment measure, compared with that industry's 2015 to 2019 average. The pattern reached financial services, insurance, telecommunications, real estate and professional services. "We are starting to see clearer signs that the AI impact is spreading beyond the technology sector," Hatzius wrote.
The caveat. The Daily Caller stresses that these are correlations and do not show AI directly caused job losses. The analysis uses Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics and IPUMS data.
The backdrop. The Census Bureau said in May that about 20% of American businesses used AI, near 40% in information and about 34% in finance and insurance. Earlier in 2026 Goldman estimated AI had cut monthly payroll growth by about 16,000 jobs over the prior year and lifted unemployment by roughly 0.1 point. In September it found hiring headwinds concentrated in a narrow set of industries and workers, with junior staff most exposed.
The growth side. Hatzius expects AI investment's contribution to growth to peak in late 2026 or early 2027 as spending keeps rising at a slower pace. Goldman estimates AI-linked stock gains lifted consumer spending growth by about 0.4 points over the past year, an effect it expects to fade. The bank still expects AI to raise productivity and corporate profits over time, and says it can create jobs where it complements workers.
Note for readers: the headline numbers come from Goldman's model as described by the Daily Caller. We did not see the full report.