Fox News Power Rankings: Senate Control Comes Down to Nine Races, With Six Toss-Ups
The forecast has each party at 47 seats, and Republicans are defending six of the nine closest contests.
With a little over two weeks left before Election Day, the fight for the Senate has narrowed to nine races, according to the latest Fox News Power Rankings.
The forecast puts Democrats and Republicans at 47 seats each. Six races are rated true toss-ups and three more are rated "lean." Republicans hold the Senate 53-47 now, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take it.
The six toss-ups, as Fox lists them:
Alaska. Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman. Iowa. Rep. Ashley Hinson, running for the seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, against state Rep. Josh Turek. Maine. Sen. Susan Collins against former state Senate President Troy Jackson. Ohio. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted against former Sen. Sherrod Brown, in the race for the final two years of the term JD Vance won in 2022. Texas. State Attorney General Ken Paxton against state Rep. James Talarico, for the seat John Cornyn lost in the Republican primary. Michigan. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, defending retiring Sen. Gary Peters' seat, against former Rep. Mike Rogers. This is the only toss-up where Democrats are on defense.
The three leaners: New Hampshire (Democrat Chris Pappas against former Sen. John E. Sununu) is Lean Democrat. Minnesota is also Lean Democrat after moving a notch toward Republicans this past week, as nominee Michele Tafoya gains traction against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Kansas is Lean Republican, with Sen. Roger Marshall facing pastor Adam Hamilton.
Two states look out of reach for Republicans, per Fox. Democrat Jon Ossoff holds a solid lead over Rep. Mike Collins in Georgia, and GOP groups have cut spending there. In North Carolina, Republicans appear to have given up on the seat of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, where Mike Whatley trails former Gov. Roy Cooper.
The paths: Democrats win the majority by holding Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, flipping North Carolina, and taking at least three of the five GOP-held toss-ups. Republicans keep control by holding at least three of those toss-ups. A 50-50 Senate stays Republican because Vice President Vance breaks ties.
Fox notes the headwinds for the GOP: history favors the party out of power in midterms, and Republicans face persistent grocery prices, high gas prices tied to an Iran war that polls show is unpopular, and negative approval ratings for the president. If Democrats ride a large wave, Fox says they could reach 52 or 53 seats.
Republicans are not conceding the mood. NRSC chair Sen. Tim Scott told Fox, "The momentum, frankly, is with us, not against us," and said he sees Minnesota as a possible flip. Democratic campaign chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand says her party is "in the strongest position yet."