Fox News Power Rankings: Kansas Moves to Toss-Up, Nebraska to Lean R, and Senate Control Is Still a Coin Flip
In its final forecast before Election Day, Fox News shifts five Senate races and nineteen House races. Both parties are short of a Senate majority, and Democrats are favored to take the House.
Fox News released its final Power Rankings of the midterm cycle on Sunday, moving more Senate races toward Democrats and keeping control of the chamber a toss-up.
What moved. Fox says five Senate races shifted this week. Kansas goes from Lean R to Toss-up because Republicans are spending more time and money there than the party would if Sen. Roger Marshall had a clear edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton. Nebraska goes from Likely R to Lean R. Fox says the odds still favor Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, but a bigger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn. South Carolina goes from Lean R to Toss-up. Mississippi goes from Solid R to Likely R, which Fox ties to Trump's decision to rally there. Ohio goes from Toss-up to Lean D, with Fox citing its own poll that has Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead of Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 52% to 47%.
The Senate math. Fox has Democrats favored in 48 seats and Republicans ahead in 45, so neither side is at 51. It says a good night for Democrats could reach 55 seats, while a good night for Republicans could hold the chamber with up to 52. Fox says seven states are most likely to decide it: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas, all states Trump won in 2024. It reports a tied Texas race at 49% to 49% in last week's Fox News Poll.
The House. Fox expects Democrats to flip the House, with at least 223 seats in its forecast and as many as 240 on a good night. It puts Republicans at 195 seats, with a ceiling of about 212. Nineteen more House races moved toward Democrats this week, and Kentucky's 6th District moved from Lean R to Toss-up.
Fox's explanation. The analysis says there are "two electorates." One is frustrated with President Trump and ready to vote Democratic, which shows up in House polling. The other is wavering on Republicans in Senate battlegrounds but not clearly handing Democrats the chamber. Fox also points to the Iran war and prices: it says Trump's approval has fallen from 44% before the war to 36%, and that voters prefer Democrats on inflation and gas prices.
What to keep in mind. These are Fox News's own forecasts, not election results, and the outlet itself calls Senate control a toss-up. Fox says about 10% of voters in Alaska, Iowa and Kansas are undecided, and that any guess on how they will break is "only a guess." The first returns arrive Tuesday.