Fox News Poll: Paxton and Talarico Are Tied at 49% in the Texas Senate Race
Republican Ken Paxton erased a 2-point deficit from last month, but his favorability is 17 points underwater. Texans still say they want Republicans to keep the Senate, 51% to 47%.
A new Fox News Poll has the Texas Senate race dead even two weeks before Election Day.
Among likely voters, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico each have 49%, according to the survey Fox released Wednesday. Last month Talarico led 51% to 49%. Fox says the shift comes from Paxton pulling in more conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and people who voted for Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Paxton, backed by President Trump, beat Cornyn for the nomination.
Control of the Senate. Texans say they want Republicans in charge, 51% to 47%, up from a 1-point edge in September. So the party question favors the GOP more than the candidate question does.
Where each man leads. Per Fox, Talarico is ahead by wide margins among Black voters (+65), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28) and college-educated women (+23). Paxton leads among white evangelical Christians (+52), white men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and voters 65 and up (+18). Hispanic voters, who narrowly went for Trump in 2024 by Fox's measure, now favor Talarico 64% to 34%.
The weak spot for Paxton. His ratings are 41% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Talarico's are 49% favorable and 48% unfavorable. Among voters who dislike both men, Paxton leads by 50 points. Fox also reports Talarico has stronger party loyalty: 98% of Democrats back him against 90% of Republicans backing Paxton, and nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans say they will vote for Talarico.
Enthusiasm and the economy. Democrats are more fired up, with 69% saying they are extremely interested in the election against 61% of Republicans. Trump's job approval in Texas is 45% approve, 54% disapprove. By 43% to 20%, voters say they are worse off financially than two years ago. Those voters back Talarico by 45 points.
"The race is going to come down to two basic questions," Republican pollster Daron Shaw told Fox. "Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?"
Governor. Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47%, unchanged since September.
How the poll was done. Fox says it surveyed 2,011 Texas registered voters October 15 to 19, 2026, by live phone and text-to-web. The likely-voter group is 1,398 people, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points. The poll is run jointly by Beacon Research (Democratic) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican).