Four States Vote Tuesday on Ballot Measures Over Who Competes in Girls' and Women's Sports, and Two Are Traditionally Democratic
Washington and Colorado would set statewide sex-based limits for the first time. Arizona and Nebraska would strengthen laws they already have. Fox's OutKick lists what each yes and no vote does and what prediction markets show.
Voters in four states decide Tuesday whether to write sex-based limits on girls' and women's sports into law, Fox News's OutKick site reports. Arizona and Nebraska already restrict biological males in female sports, so a yes vote there would expand or harden those laws. Washington and Colorado have no statewide limits, so a yes vote would create them in two traditionally Democratic states.
Washington, Initiative 638. A yes vote bars students defined as biologically male from girls' K-12 interscholastic sports. Girls seeking to play would need documentation from a health professional on biological sex, based on reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or normal testosterone levels. Opponents, including No Hate in Washington State, say it discriminates and could lead to invasive exams. Supporters call that fearmongering and say sex can be verified in a routine sports physical or a cheek swab. OutKick says a boy in Camas switched to the girls' team midseason this year under current rules. We covered that runner's regional race. Polymarket put the odds of passing at 64% at the time of writing.
Colorado, Proposition 134. A yes vote sets statewide sex-based participation rules for school sports from K-12 through college, in public, charter and private schools, with exceptions for coed sports and for girls on boys' teams when no girls' team exists. It does not require a doctor's note, and schools would write their own eligibility policies. The state education commissioner could act against districts that refuse. Planned Parenthood and others oppose it as overreach. Jennifer Sey of XX-XY Athletics, who chairs the yes campaign, says 27 states already have limits and the exams opponents warn about are not happening there. Polymarket: 55%.
Arizona, Proposition 318. A yes vote extends the state's public school rules to private schools and athletic associations, including youth and college sports, restricts restrooms and locker rooms by the sex on an original birth certificate, and lets athletes sue schools that knowingly violate the law. The ACLU and other opponents say it singles out transgender students and invites costly lawsuits. Supporters say it closes loopholes and protects privacy and safety. Polymarket: 82%.
Nebraska. A yes vote puts the ban in the state constitution, for K-12 through college, and covers private institutions that compete against public schools. Gov. Jim Pillen signed the Stand With Women Act in June 2025, and the amendment would make it harder for future lawmakers to repeal. OutNebraska and Fairness for All oppose it. Fairness for Girls supports it. OutKick found no Polymarket odds.
What to keep in mind. The odds are prediction-market prices, not results, and the arguments are the campaigns' own. We have not checked the measures' ballot text.