# Daily Caller's Election Watch Guide: The Senate and House Races That Will Show Whether Republicans Beat Expectations

Six Senate contests and a set of House seats will tell Republicans on Tuesday night whether they beat the polls. The guide cites polling averages from Friday and says forecasters expect Democrats to retake the House.

- Section: [Politics](https://rightnewsrightnow.com/politics/)
- Published: 2026-11-01
- By: RightNewsRightNow Staff
- Canonical page: https://rightnewsrightnow.com/articles/daily-caller-midterm-election-watch-guide-alaska-michigan-texas-ohio-maine-kansas-house-daily-caller/

With two days to go, the Daily Caller has put out a race-by-race guide to what Republicans should watch on Tuesday night. Its framing: the party trails in the polls, and voters remain unhappy with President Trump's handling of the economy, so the question is whether Republicans do better than expected.

Alaska Senate. The paper says the race has been tangled in legal fights since the New York Times reported that former Rep. Mary Peltola's campaign and aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee helped recruit other candidates to run against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. A second Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher, will be on the ballot. The Justice Department has subpoenaed more than three dozen people, and Gov. Mike Dunleavy has ordered a state investigation into whether Alaska law was broken. Peltola led by an average of 1.2 points as of Friday. The guide says it is unclear how the Times report will affect her. The second Sullivan switched from Republican to unaffiliated on Wednesday.

Michigan Senate. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are competing for the seat Sen. Gary Peters is leaving. RealClearPolling had El-Sayed up 3.2 points on Friday. The guide notes Rogers has Trump's endorsement but broke with him during the general election on the Iran war and, in part, on Canadian tariffs. It also reports, citing anonymous sources in the Times, that AIPAC planned to give up to $9 million to a pro-Rogers super PAC late in October. It adds that current FEC filings show no contribution from AIPAC or its affiliated group to that PAC.

Texas Senate. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are close. Talarico led by an average of 1.8 points on Friday. The guide says Republicans have spent more than $300 million and Democrats more than $130 million, and that corruption became a top issue late. The guide notes the state Legislature impeached Paxton in 2023 and the state Senate acquitted him. He denied wrongdoing.

Ohio. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown led Sen. Jon Husted by an average of 2.6 points, and Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 4.3 in the governor's race, as of Friday.

Maine. Democrat Troy Jackson led Sen. Susan Collins by an average of 1.4 points. The guide points to heating oil prices, which it says averaged $6.05 a gallon on Oct. 26 and matter in a state where roughly half the population heats with oil.

Kansas. Sen. Roger Marshall trailed Democrat Adam Hamilton by an average of 2.6 points. The Senate Leadership Fund has spent $14 million to support Marshall, and the Democratic Senate Majority PAC launched a $5 million ad campaign.

The House. The guide says forecasters project Democrats will retake the chamber. It cites Cook Political Report shifts toward Democrats in several districts and a projection of up to 240 Democratic seats if they flip between 12 and 25.

What to keep in mind. These are polling averages from Friday and the Daily Caller's summary of other outlets' reporting, not results. Polls can be wrong in either direction. This post covers the parts of the guide we read; the full piece runs longer, so use the link below for the House detail. The first returns come in Tuesday.

## Source

Original reporting: [Daily Caller](https://dailycaller.com/2026/11/01/midterm-elections-races-republicans-democrats-polls)